Trump’s campaign: SOSTAC in action

I came across this fab post on IDM blog by PR Smith F IDM

Please see direct text from the blog and original via IDM blog (although you will be required to be member to access it).

“Many are still wondering how Donald Trump became president of the United States Of America, despite himself? Here’s an analysis, using SOSTAC® Planning Framework to explore some of Trump’s plan and to give some insights into his subsequent successful campaign. Comments are most welcome. Situation analysis (where are you now) , Objectives (where are you going?), Strategy (how do you get there?), Tactics (the details of strategy), Action (how do you ensure excellent execution) and Control (how do you know you are getting there – what will you measure?). I will use these to categorise various aspect of the Trump campaign but please remember this is just an outline not an in-dept detailed analysis.


                                       PR Smith’s SOSTAC® Planning Framework
 
Situation AnalysisCustomer Analysis: Who – are Trump’s potential voters?

Trump focused on “left-behind” voters, specifically white working-class men (and women). He initially gambled on targeting one powerful voting bloc, (some pollsters thought this would alienate too many people) suggests Harvard’s professor Stephen Greyse (Fottrell 2016).   Clinton’s target audience was far broader, reaching out to the middle-class and “left-out” voters and black and Latino ‘left-out’ voters (many of whom had not yet a slice of the American pie). A month before the elections Trump had 57k transactors (contributors) of whom 68% were male and 32% were female, compared to Clinton who had 914k transactors of whom 36% were male and 64%  were female. Far more variables were eventually used to segment the market into dozens of target segments. In fact, a small English company who had also worked on the Brexit ‘Leave’ campaign for UKIP, worked for Trump and divided the US population into 32 personality types, and focused on just 17 states (see part 3).

Why – do Trump’s potential voters vote (what are their needs)?

Many people wanted change. Many others were frustrated and maybe even angry about their lives. Some have fears rather than hope. Is it possible that Trump’s upbeat’ #MakeAmericaGreatAgain or #MAGA hashtag played into the unconscious fears that if you don’t vote for Trump, America will get worse ie whatever is bad about America will become far worse? See the word-cloud graphics (in the final, ‘Control’ section) which demonstrates how Trump repeated these messages.

What the elite missed was the sources of the anger & resentment that has lead to the populist upheavals in the US & Britain & many other parts of the world (Harvard’s Professor Michael Sandel 2017).

Why were voters angry? What the elite missed was the sources of the anger & resentment that has lead to the populist upheavals in the US & Britain & many other parts of the world. (They) assumed it’s anger against immigration and trade and at the heart of that is jobs. But it’s also about even bigger things., about the loss of community, disempowerment, & social esteem (a sense that the work that ordinary people do is no longer honoured & recognised (& rewarded).’ Sandel 2017)

How – do Trump’s potential voters decide (how do they process information)?

Shorter attention spans. Research from Harvard revealed that attention spans for the first ever telivised political debate between JFK and Nixon back in 1960, was only 42 seconds (the maximum time to get a serious political message across). This fell to just 5 seconds in 2008 and even less since in 2012. There are many other variables involved here also, but, short attention spans is significant and perhaps gives a clue why Britain voted marginally for Brexit (short anti-EU messages had far more impact than long economic pro EU messages). 

Major Market Trend – A Gap In The Market

We live in a post truth-era. ‘Dishonesty in politics is nothing new; but the manner in which some politicians now lie, and the havoc they may wreak by doing so, are worrying’ says the  Economist magazine (2016). The worrying phrase ‘post-truth’ was even named Word Of The Year by Oxford Dictionaries (Flood 2016). Defined by the dictionary as an adjective “relating to or denoting circumstances in which objective facts are less influential in shaping public opinion than appeals to emotion and personal belief”. The spike in usage, it said, is “in the context of the EU referendum in the United Kingdom and the presidential election in the United States”.

This is compounded by the moral vacuum which opens the gates for extremist politicians. Here is Harvard Professor Michael Sandel’s chilling observation: “… in the face of pluralism  and for the sake of toleration … to insist on a non-judgemental, value-free politics .. that creates a moral vacuum , a void, that will invariably will be filled  by narrow, intolerant moralisms.” Sandel (2017)
 
Competitor Analysis

During the Republican nomination race, Trump saw a right wing gap and went for it. He also analysed the political establishment through the eyes of disenchanted voters. Trump became the Republican candidate for the presidential election. Next he analysed his opposition, the Democrats, Hilary Clinton. When he found a perceived weakness that resonated with his voters (see the Control section in part 2) he went for it. President Obama had unprecedented success in targeting, organizing and motivating voters,we imagine Trump’s team studied this blog post How Obama Became America’s First Black President to understand his competitor’s strategy and tactics.

This photo of Obama’s Chair from behind, in the Oval office, This image went viral during the 2008 campaign with the caption: ‘This seat is taken’

This image went viral during the 2008 campaign with the caption: ‘This seat is taken’

Current Performance

With the election just a month away, donations raised by October 2016: Clinton had $298m from 914,000 transactors (donors) and Trump had just $50.1m from 57,000 donors (Cortana et al).

Opinion polls favoured Clinton.

Objectives

Originally to win the Republican Nomination and then, win the presidential election (after that we just don’t know).
 
Strategy

Old Strategy

Trump initially raised his own profile by making headline-grabbing statements, often by calling in to television shows, supplemented by a rally once or twice a week to provide the appearance of a traditional campaign (Bertoni 2016).

New Strategy

Trump’s crystal clear positioning as the ‘controversial (non-establishment) ordinary guy’  was supported by data driven highly targeted tailored messages on facebook & twitter to “left-behind”  white working-class men (and women), combined with sentiment manipulation, machine learning, constant beta culture and almost instant reactions to audience mood swings.

Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner, took over the campaign created this new strategy and, amongst other things,  set up a secret data operation-like a Silicon Valley startup. ‘Kushner eventually tipped the states that swung the election. And he did so in manner that will change the way future elections will be won and lost.’ (Bertoni 2016).

Positioning

Trump positioned himself as a non-establishment guy. An ‘outsider’ – a ‘non-political establishment guy’.   He simultaneously positioned Clinton as an establishment person. An ‘insider’ (a politician linked to Obama’s policies) (Kanski 2016). Trump played the confrontational card which helped him to establish authenticity amongst frustrated voters. So he became a ‘controversial (non-establishment) ordinary guy’.

Meanwhile, Trump positioned Clinton as an untrustworthy ‘insider’ and threatened to take her to court after the election. Clinton’s authenticity was challenged by high-lighting the fact that ‘she seemed to say one thing in her speeches and another behind the scenes, illustrated in her emails leaked by Wikileaks and “basket of deplorables” comments (Kanski 2016). The CIA revelations days before the vote appeared to attack Clinton’s authenticity. Or was all this information fed by the Russians? There’s definitely a movie in this story.

‘controversial (non-establishment) ordinary guy’    v     untrustworthy ‘insider’ establishment lady
 
Was it like this?

a perceptual map showing trump positioned as a non-establishment reasonably trustworthy guy and Clinton as an establishment lady and untrustworthy
a possible perceptual map
 
Apart from Clinton’s followers, one wonders whether the average American could relate to Clinton as easily as they could to Trump (or Obama in the previous two elections).

The ‘Ordinary (non-establishment) Guy’ Created Authenticity

While Trump followers believed Trump had authenticity as he, rightly or wrongly, ‘says it like it is’.  The difference in authenticity, according to Kanski, was simply that ‘People can relate to bankruptcies, to locker room talk, to tough talk on terrorism, and that was difference. Whilst Trump might be a billionaire, but he’s been bankrupt, uses locker-room talk i.e. his life experiences somehow seemed to resonate more with the average undecided voter.’
 
Targeting

Trump stayed focused on the “left-behind” voters, specifically white working-class men (and women). As mentioned earlier, this was deemed risky (targeting one powerful voting bloc).  Clinton’s target audience, on the other hand, was far broader, reaching out to the middle-class and black and Latino ‘left-out’ voters (many of whom had not yet a slice of the American pie). Trump’s relentless use of data continually sharpened his targeting of those battleground states (the ‘swing states’, that over recent elections have gone both ways). They are the key to winning the election. In recent elections Florida and Ohio (3rd and 7th largest states, with 29 and 18 electoral votes respectively) have been swinging back and forth between the parties.

Data-driven Decision Making

Within three weeks, in a nondescript building outside San Antonio, Kushner had built what would become a 100-person data hub designed to make more informed decisions which leveraged the magic marketing formula (see part 2):

  • messages (topics of speeches)
  • targeting
  • travelling / rally locations
  • fundraising
  •  

Kushner built a custom geo-location tool that plotted the location density of about 20 voter types over a live Google Maps interface.”

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Want to make sense of Snapchat? Read the Economist…

Recently published article on the Economist explains well how the most popular among 18-24 messaging app does work:

“Snapchat is best known as an app used by teenagers to send pictures, or “snaps”, that self-destruct a few seconds after being seen. Unlike on Facebook its users do not leave behind a digital trail of embarrassing pictures. But in the past two years it has added several other features, including a chat function, filters that overlay graphics on photos, a “stories” function that allows users to document their days and, not least, a place for media companies (including The Economist) to publish journalism and entertainment content. Yet finding all these features can be a challenge.

Fortunately, Snap’s IPO prospectus contains a detailed guide to using the app, complete with diagrams (see picture). “Making a snap is simple,” according to the prospectus. “Users either tap the camera button to take a photo, or hold the camera button to record a video up to ten seconds long. Immediately after a snap has been created on the camera screen, the preview screen displays the photo or video snap for the user to review and edit using our creative tools.”

20170304_BLP510.jpg

Snapchat as explained by the Economist

Read further at: http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2017/03/economist-explains-0?cid1=cust/ddnew/n/n/n/2017032n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/UK/email

Competition #2 ‘#psebu17’: Digital content creation

Hi All,

Now it is a time to get involved as the Prize is worth it!

You are to engage in creation of digital content and the topic is close to your hearts and minds – Placement Search Experience.

Before you compete, you have to sign up to a Buzzfeed community account (http://www.buzzfeed.com/). You can use your Gmail, Facebook or Twitter or other email you wish. Fill in your profile details with as much info as you are comfortable with.

Competition task: Publish Buzzfeed blog post!

Buzzfeed blog post topic: Your content and headline must be linked to experience of looking for and/or securing placement. This could include any related topic including university pressures, student experience, future career aspirations, success, loss etc.

Deadline: You must publish Buzzfeed blog post by 7pm on Monday 6th March and share it on Twitter using #psebu17 or email link to blog post to Dr Elvira Bolat at ebolat@bournemouth.ac.uk  by 9pm on Tuesday 7th March.

Format: Your content can be any length, any combination of text, image, infographic, video, etc. You must use at least one form of media in addition to text. You can choose between making an article, list, quiz, poll, or checklist.

There is a prize: 2 adult tickets for Splashdown Waterparks, Tower Park, Poole.

Competition criteria: To be eligible to win the prize you need to generate at least 30 likes on Buzzfeed. Eligible post that will generate the most likes on Buzzfeed by Wednesday 15 March 12am will be selected as the Winner.

Terms and conditions apply – see below for the details.

Terms and Conditions – #psebu17

By entering the #psebu17 competition you are agreeing to these competition rules:

The DIM Placement Search Experience competition is being run by Dr Elvira Bolat (unit leader for the Digital Interactive Marketing unit) from Wednesday 1 March 12am to Wednesday 15 March 12am 2017.

To enter you must be over the age of 18 years and you must be BA (Hons) Business Studies student at Bournemouth University enrolled on Digital Interactive Marketing optional unit in 2017.

We hold the right to reject any entry which we feel does not meet the criteria or rules of the competition, or which we feel is derogatory, immoral or inappropriate.

You must have the appropriate permissions of all individuals within the original images (if applicable) to use and upload the images. Images should not have any other logos or branding imprinted on them, and must not infringe the intellectual property rights of any third party. NOTE!!!! Plagiarism and referencing are major concerns for this competition. Your content/post must be a new contribution, either through aggregation of multiple content sources or unique content creation. It is critical that you acknowledge original content where applicable.

The competition will close at 12am on Wednesday 15 March 2017. Late entries (posts published after 7pm on Monday 6 March) will not be accepted. The entries will be judged based on Buzzfeed analytics registered on 12am Wednesday 15 March 2017. The winner will be announced at the Lecture 7.1 on Thursday 16th March 2017.

Vote for Best BU Research Photo

I usually do not use this space for self-promotional content but would love for you to access BU Research Photography Competition Album for this year:

BU Research Photography Competition 2017

Do vote from Monday for two of my photos (if you like them, of course :-))

Thank you for support!

 

Probabilistic approach to customer journey mapping

Ok, I already stated in the first lecture that a last-click cost-per-acquisition (CPA) model is outdated and not working in times when customers are using multiple devices. New approach to mapping customer journey and using it as a tool not only to research and predict but get the sales number growing is a Probabilistic approach.

What is that? You take “anonymous data points such as device type, location and operating system and use algorithms to suggest matches between devices that are likely to be owned by the same person”. 

Obviously, it will be ideal to use a deterministic approach: using “first-party data from websites consumers, sign it into in order to create links between devices, enabling the user to be definitively identified as the same person (albeit anonymously) across different screens.”

Read Marketing Week’s post further for understand Shop Direct’s approach as well as all nuances behind the probabilistic approach: https://www.marketingweek.com/2016/02/18/how-to-connect-customer-journeys-from-research-to-purchase/

Cross-device tracking in numbers

  • 89% of agency employees agree that ‘Not being able to track cross-device campaigns is holding back the growth of mobile’ (Source: IAB Mobile Agency Snapshot Study, 2015)
  • The average UK consumer shifts their attention between their smartphones, tablets and laptops 21 times in one hour (Source: OMD UK Future of Britain, 2014)
  • 50% of ecommerce transactions worldwide involve a cross-device purchase journey
  • 44% of US users who use multiple devices in the path to purchase convert via smartphone. This compares to 46% via desktop and 43% via tablet
  • 46% of UK ecommerce transactions come from mobile 

(Source: Criteo Q3 2015 State of Mobile Commerce Report)

Customer Journey: Importance

Okey, I love this image below – explains clearly the importance of customer journey mapping.

customer_journey_marketoonist_22_9_16

PizzaExpress and its new Facebook Messaging …

Ok, to compliment discussion on impact of technological changes in the digital marketing context, see how messaging, named to be 2017 digital trend, is now applied by brand. Pizza Express has launched Facebook Messenger chatbot and allows customers to book a table in a matter of 1.5 minute – fantastic example of effective chase and catching up on technological trends. New touchpoint in Pizza Experience customer journey.

pizzaexpress_750

Read full article: https://www.marketingweek.com/2017/02/09/pizzaexpress-order-bot-launch/

4Ps are still important

“The 4Ps still offer a strong backbone to a marketing strategy. Combining responsive activity with an ongoing attachment to the fundamentals of marketing is likely to be a strategy that many brands will pursue as they seek to balance innovation with profitability and growth in the years ahead.”

Read full article to accompany your lecture 2.1. materials: https://www.marketingweek.com/2017/02/09/big-debate-4ps-marketing-still-relevant/

4ps-of-marketing_750

It is time for 1st Competition: #dimbsbuSV17

Hi All,

It is time to get creative and I mean TRULY CREATIVE. I do competitions for almost all units I teach. I know everyone in Creative is buzzing about Super Bowl but I am asking to work on something you are pretty much familiar with – St.Valentine’s. The day is nearly here.

This year brands are already embracing the occasion. Have you seen Lush Valentine-‘s Day 2017 Campaign? IT features same-sex couples and overall message is “Love transcends gender”.

5885cab71200002d00ad92a6

Pandora’s love booth campaign should be a hit!

Do you remember Axe’s successful digital campaign “Kiss for Piece”?

What could you think about this year. Choose a concept and hashtag; take a selfie, photo or video. Share it on Tweeter using #dimbsbuSV17 before 12am on Tuesday 14th February.

There is a prize: £10 Amazon voucher. Winner will be selected during the lecture on 16th February using voting tech.

Terms and conditions apply – see below for the details.

Terms and Conditions – #dimbsbuSV17

By entering the #dimbsbuSV17 competition you are agreeing to these competition rules:

The DIM St Valentines competition is being run by Dr Elvira Bolat (unit leader for the Digital Interactive Marketing unit) from Monday 6 February 6pm to Tuesday 14 February 12am 2017.

To enter you must be over the age of 18 years and you must be BA (Hons) Business Studies student at Bournemouth University enrolled on Digital Interactive Marketing optional unit in 2017.

We hold the right to reject any entry which we feel does not meet the criteria or rules of the competition, or which we feel is derogatory, immoral or inappropriate.

You must have the appropriate permissions of all individuals within the image to use and upload the image. Images should not have any other logos or branding imprinted on them, and must not infringe the intellectual property rights of any third party.

The competition will close at 12am on Tuesday 14 February 2017. Late entries will not be accepted. The entries will be judged by students enrolled on Digital Interactive Marketing unit. The decision of the judges will be final.The winners will be announced at the Lecture 3.1 on Thursday 16th February 2017.

Moving from a last-click model of DIM measurement to people-based analysis

In today’s lecture I would emphasise this point which is linked to current trends and underpinning in DIM thinking. Read this article for in-depth understanding of lift-testing technique in evaluation of DIM efforts.

Download: s3

screen-shot-2017-02-02-at-05-43-14

 

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